📈

Recession Pulse

Macro-economic signals mapped to layoff riskLive

No other layoff tracker connects the dots between geopolitical events, energy markets, monetary policy, and employment risk. Recession Pulse aggregates 9 daily macro indicators and maps them to layoff probability shifts across sectors — so you can see the macro storm forming before it hits your industry.

9 macro indicatorsSector risk scores5 historical analoguesWARN filing velocityOil price shock index

How Recession Pulse Works

Indicator Scoring

Each indicator is scored 0–100 based on deviation from historical norms. 80+ signals extreme stress, 50–79 is elevated, below 50 is within normal range.

Sector Mapping

Sector impact scores weight each indicator based on historical correlation with sector-specific workforce reductions. Energy shocks have highest weight on Transportation and Retail.

Historical Pattern

We identify the closest historical macro environment from 50+ years of data. Pattern matching helps estimate recovery timelines and peak layoff windows.

Informational purposes only

This page and all content on LayoffSignal is provided for informational purposes only.
Nothing on this site constitutes investment, legal, or financial advice.
AI-generated content is labeled where present. Always review before relying on it.
Data is sourced from public filings, publicly reported WARN notices, news sources, and SEC records.

Data Sources & Attribution

This product uses the FRED® API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

Source: Caldara, Dario and Matteo Iacoviello (2022), “Measuring Geopolitical Risk,” American Economic Review, 112(4), pp.1194-1225. Data from matteoiacoviello.com/gpr.htm. Creative Commons BY license. Updated weekly.

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration — Brent crude oil spot price. Public domain. Updated daily.

Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System via FRED — 10-Year/2-Year Treasury yield spread. Updated daily.

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics via FRED — Unemployment rate. Updated monthly.

Source: U.S. Department of Labor via FRED — Initial jobless claims. Updated weekly.

Source: Claudia Sahm / FRED — Sahm Rule real-time recession indicator. Updated monthly.

Source: LayoffSignal — Layoff event acceleration, tech momentum, AI displacement. Computed live from internal data.

Proprietary Methodology · The scoring models, analytical frameworks, and data processing pipelines described on this page are proprietary to LayoffSignal. This overview is provided for transparency and evaluation purposes only.

The specific implementation details — including model weights, prompt engineering, scoring algorithms, data enrichment logic, and pipeline architecture — are trade secrets of LayoffSignal and are not disclosed in this document.